US Elections

UC Irvine Poll Shows Hilton at 47%, Becerra at 44% in Orange County

A single county poll does not determine a statewide race, but Orange County's historical shift away from Republicans makes Hilton's lead there a data point strategists in both parties will monitor...

The Congressional Times · August 1, 2026

Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton holds a 3-percentage-point lead over Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra among Orange County voters, according to a poll conducted June 9–12, 2026, by the University of California, Irvine. The survey showed Hilton receiving 47% of the Orange County vote share against Becerra's 44%, per reporting by the New York Post citing the UC Irvine poll directly.

Orange County, California's third-most-populous county with approximately 3.2 million residents according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2020 decennial data, was long a Republican stronghold before shifting toward Democrats in the 2016 and 2018 election cycles. In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Orange County over Donald Trump by approximately 7 percentage points, according to certified California Secretary of State results.

Hilton, a former Fox News host, filed as a Republican candidate for California governor. Becerra, who served as California Attorney General before being confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services in 2021 — a confirmation recorded in the U.S. Senate's official roll call — subsequently left that federal post and entered the California gubernatorial race as a Democrat.

The UC Irvine poll's full methodology, including margin of error, sample size, and weighting procedures, had not been independently published in full as of this article's publication date. Those details, if released by UC Irvine's social science survey center, would allow readers to assess the poll's statistical confidence interval and whether the 3-point gap falls within or outside the margin of error. California's June 2026 primary results, certified by the California Secretary of State, will provide the next definitive electoral data point for this race.

What remains unknown: statewide polling averages for the Hilton-Becerra contest, each candidate's current fundraising totals as disclosed in California Fair Political Practices Commission filings, and whether any independent candidates have qualified for the ballot. California FPPC disclosure records and the Secretary of State's candidate filing database would answer those questions.

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