BofA Analyst Projects Higher US Fuel Prices Amid Low Inventories
When a major financial institution's commodities research head flags low fuel inventories as a price driver, consumers and policymakers face pressure to respond before conditions worsen.
Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at BofA Securities, stated on Bloomberg Surveillance on August 13, 2026, that gasoline and diesel prices in the United States are likely to rise because current inventories are at low levels. Blanch did not specify the precise inventory figures during the interview, but the US Energy Information Administration publishes weekly petroleum status reports that would provide the underlying inventory data. The EIA's most recent weekly report, available at eia.gov, is the primary public record against which Blanch's claim can be verified.
Blanch also described China as a 'swing buyer' of global oil, meaning China's purchasing decisions now materially affect price levels internationally. He characterized China as having become skilled at managing its energy consumption. The degree to which Chinese demand affects US retail fuel prices depends on refinery capacity, domestic crude output, and import levels, all of which the EIA tracks in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.
On the supply side, Blanch said oil prices could decline in 2027 if conditions normalize in the Strait of Hormuz, a passage through which the US Energy Information Administration estimated approximately 21 percent of global petroleum liquids flowed in 2023, according to the agency's published country analysis. Any disruption or resolution in that corridor carries direct implications for global crude benchmarks, which in turn affect domestic retail prices tracked by the EIA's weekly gasoline and diesel price surveys.
For US policymakers, elevated fuel prices carry implications for inflation data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically the energy subcomponent of the Consumer Price Index. Congressional oversight of domestic energy production falls primarily under the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and the House Energy and Commerce Committee, both of which have held hearings in the current session on fuel price drivers. The specific legislative or regulatory responses under consideration by either committee in response to current inventory levels are not yet part of the public record.
What remains unknown is whether BofA Securities has issued a formal written research note quantifying its price projections, which would be available to registered clients through FINRA-regulated distribution. The precise inventory levels Blanch referenced, the timeline for projected price increases, and any specific dollar-per-gallon forecast have not been disclosed in publicly available materials as of this report's publication date.