As Hochul's Poll Numbers Tank, She Leans on Mamdani for Help
A new Siena poll shows the New York governor's lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman cut in half since June. Rather than distancing herself from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, the...
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul's lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman has narrowed sharply in the past two months, according to a Siena University poll released this week. Hochul led Blakeman by 20 points among registered voters in Siena's June survey. In the new poll, fielded August 3 to 6 among 811 likely voters with a 4.6-point margin of error, that lead had shrunk to 10.
The same poll found New York voters broadly unfavorable toward the Democratic Socialists of America. Democrats viewed the group favorably by a 50-21 margin, but 82 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of independents did not.
That finding lands directly on the strategy Blakeman's campaign has built around New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a DSA-aligned Democrat. Blakeman has repeatedly worked to tie Hochul to Mamdani on the trail, and political analysts have called it central to his path to November. "Tying Mamdani to the governor is going to be one of the most important strategies for Republicans going into November," analyst J.C. Polanco said earlier this year.
But the record shows the opposite of a governor distancing herself from that connection. Hochul endorsed Mamdani for mayor in September 2025. He returned the favor in February, endorsing her reelection in a Nation op-ed that called their relationship a genuine partnership, citing their work together on universal childcare. As recently as this week, reporting indicates Mamdani is now considering actively campaigning alongside her, a notable escalation from where their alliance stood even a few months ago.
Blakeman, for his part, has centered his campaign on affordability, pledging to cut New Yorkers' electricity bills, opposing Hochul's moratorium on new data centers, and defending Nassau County's cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. He has also drawn scrutiny for declining to fully commit to accepting November's election results without qualification, telling reporters in July that Democrats have "consistently tried to cheat" in the race so far.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg offered historical context for the shift: four years ago, in August 2022, Hochul led her opponent, then-Rep. Lee Zeldin, by 14 points before winning that November by six.