Midterm Uncertainty and Treasury Yields Weigh on U.S. Stock Outlook, PNC CIO Says
Elevated Treasury yields and approaching 2026 midterm elections are introducing volatility risks into an otherwise earnings-supported equity market, according to PNC Financial Services Group's...
PNC Financial Services Group Chief Investment Officer Amanda Agati said on August 15, 2026, that strong corporate earnings and underlying economic fundamentals continue to support U.S. equities, while identifying elevated Treasury yields and midterm election uncertainty as the primary sources of near-term market volatility. Agati made the remarks during an appearance on Bloomberg This Weekend, hosted by Joe Mathieu and Carol Massar, as reported by Bloomberg on August 15, 2026.
Treasury yield levels are directly relevant to federal fiscal policy because the U.S. government's borrowing costs rise as yields increase. As of the most recent Treasury Department auction data available through TreasuryDirect.gov, the 10-year Treasury note yield has remained elevated relative to its 2021 through 2022 range, affecting the federal government's debt service obligations tracked in the Congressional Budget Office's annual budget and economic outlook reports.
The midterm elections referenced by Agati are scheduled for November 3, 2026. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 U.S. Senate seats are on the ballot, according to the Federal Election Commission's official election calendar. Control of Congress has direct implications for U.S. fiscal and economic policy, including tax legislation, appropriations, and debt ceiling negotiations.
PNC Financial Services Group is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and is regulated by the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. PNC's specific equity holdings and market positions as of the interview date are disclosed in its most recent 13-F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which covers institutional investment managers with more than $100 million in assets under management.
What remains unknown from the Bloomberg interview is the specific Treasury yield thresholds or earnings growth rates Agati used as benchmarks in her assessment. Those details, if formalized in internal PNC research, would be available through PNC investor relations disclosures or any subsequent SEC filings. The Federal Reserve's next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which directly influences short-term rates and yield curve dynamics, is scheduled according to the Fed's published 2026 meeting calendar and would provide additional context for the yield-related risks Agati described.