Survey: 47 Percent of Taiwanese Doubt US Will Maintain Military Aid
Published days before the Trump-Xi summit, the poll exposes a measurable credibility gap in Washington's security assurances that could shape Taiwan's own defense calculus.
Nearly half of Taiwan's public does not believe the United States will continue providing military assistance and selling weapons to the island, according to a survey released Monday by Taiwan-based United Daily News.
The poll found 47 percent of respondents lacked confidence in Washington's defense commitments to Taiwan, a figure that slightly exceeded the 44 percent who said they remained confident. The remaining respondents did not indicate a clear position, according to the South China Morning Post.
The United Daily News survey was published ahead of a scheduled summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, a meeting that analysts and governments across the Indo-Pacific have been monitoring closely for signals about the future direction of US-China relations and the status of Taiwan.
Taiwan occupies a legally ambiguous position in international relations. The United States does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taipei and officially acknowledges, without endorsing, Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China. However, under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, Washington is required to provide Taiwan with defensive arms and to maintain the capacity to resist any use of force that would jeopardize Taiwan's security.
Arms sales to Taiwan have continued under successive administrations, though the pace and composition of approved packages have varied. The Biden administration approved multiple arms packages for Taiwan between 2021 and 2024. Whether the current Trump administration will maintain that tempo is a question the survey suggests a significant portion of the Taiwanese public cannot answer with confidence.
The timing of the poll is notable. The Trump-Xi summit is the highest-level direct engagement between the two governments since Trump returned to the presidency, and Taiwan's status is expected to be among the subjects the two leaders address, according to reporting by the South China Morning Post. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Manhattan in the days preceding the summit, as previously reported by The Congressional Times in its coverage of Bessent Meets Chinese Vice Premier in Manhattan Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit.
Public confidence in alliance commitments is a recognized variable in security studies. Scholars at institutions including the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace have written that perceived reliability of a patron state affects whether a smaller partner pursues independent deterrence measures, seeks alternative alliances, or moves toward political accommodation with a rival. The United Daily News data does not indicate which of those responses Taiwanese respondents favor, and the survey as summarized by the South China Morning Post did not publish a full methodology or margin of error figure.
China has consistently asserted that Taiwan is a core interest and has not renounced the use of force to achieve unification. The People's Liberation Army has conducted multiple large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait in recent years, including drills in August 2022 and April 2023 that involved simulated blockade and strike scenarios, according to official PLA statements and reporting by Reuters at the time.
Taiwan's own government has increased its defense budget in recent years. The island's defense ministry submitted a budget request for 2024 equivalent to roughly 2.5 percent of gross domestic product, a level President Lai Ching-te has indicated he intends to sustain, according to Taiwan's Central News Agency.
What the United Daily News poll does not clarify is whether the confidence gap reflects concern about the Trump administration specifically, broader skepticism about US reliability developed over a longer period, or uncertainty generated directly by the approaching summit. A full release of the poll's questionnaire, sample size, and methodology would be needed to assess those distinctions.
The survey result enters the public record at a moment when the diplomatic posture of the United States toward both China and Taiwan is under active negotiation, and the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit is expected to provide a more concrete set of signals against which public confidence in US commitments can next be measured.